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Free and open-source. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). So we took 15 of the states where this election has been hotly waged and identified one county in each that has gone with the winner or closely reflected the statewide margin in each. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. Their concerns are real. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. The same can be said for the three states listed in the meme. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Sumter County, . With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). What, if anything, did we miss? It has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 2000. More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. Has No Presidential Candidate Won Iowa, Florida and Ohio and Still Lost? But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. What results did you discover? Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). "This is an added benefit for security and resilience," they wrote. It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. In other words, it's not whether Clinton wins Hillsborough that's important, but by how much. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. (i.e. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-48% - 2008: Obama 52%-47%. If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. "The 2020 election was RIGGED.". If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. University of Denver, 2. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. They're just facts about the vote. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. The state's demographics suggest it could go blue one day. These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. The matters that way on their minds are real. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. . Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. These are the bellwether counties. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". 5. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. With a total turnout of 78%, Donald Trump won Ottawa County by a margin of 61% to 38%, improving his 2016 return by four points. It requires a lot more than pure luck.). Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. HereIsTheEvidence.com and ElectionEvidence.com have compiled detailed databases of hundreds of items of election fraud evidence, by state. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? Of the 19 counties that had a perfect record between 1980 and 2016, all but one voted to reelect President Donald Trump, who lost to Joe Biden in both the national popular vote and in nearly. "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. Here's why. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. In 1960, President John F. Kennedy lostall three states and won the White House, beating out future President Richard Nixon, according toSnopes. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . All other 21 counties voted Republican. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 50%-49% - 2008: Obama 51%-48%. Other counties to watch: Denver suburbs Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson. Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. The highest percentage being 66.1%. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. And speak out if youve been a witness to election tampering. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. This website summarizes the major findings in the 1218 months following the Nov 2020 election. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. These counties could play an . We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 258,050Unaffiliated: 228,638Republicans: 185,694Libertarian: 3,711. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. Click here, for more. Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton need to shore up their bases here in a place where there are more unaffiliated voters than Republicans or Democrats and major party registration is at near parity. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. We highlighted the counties that voted the highest for the Democrat party in 2008 as it is a clear indicator of their propensity to vote for the Democrat party. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. Answer (1 of 33): Because "bellwether counties" are a load of horse manure. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. . The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. Dave Wasserman, who analyzes election data for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, told the Wall Street Journal that ticket-splitting appeared to make "a fashion comeback in many places.". We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. Read about our approach to external linking. What's the least amount of exercise we can get away with? Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. Twitter Twitter Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. "I think people were pretty happy with some of the things he's done, what he's been able to accomplish," says Mark Coppeler, a leading local Republican who was re-elected county commissioner last month. John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). We'll get an early indicator of Clinton's black support given this is a 7 p.m. poll close state and a place where 1-in-5 voters were black and went 93 percent for Obama. . Want to dive deeper? Trump won 18 of the 19. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. Whether or not these less diverse, industry-dependent communities can regain their bellwether status in four years' time remains to be seen. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. It went Republican in 2012; if Clinton is doing better or vice-versa there compared to Obama, it could be a sign of things to come. ET. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. Will That Last?]. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. It almost became religious.". There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Neither Clinton nor Trump won here during the caucuses in this Mississippi River county. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote.

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